000 AGXX40 KNHC 090758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING MID WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUPPORTING A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS TOWARD THE NW GULF. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE COMBINED FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO MON. SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE NW AND W CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF LATE THU. THE ENSEMBLE GFS IS NOT SHOWING ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GALE AS YET. GIVEN THE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN...WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES ATTM BUT FOLLOW GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE WITH WINDS TO 30 KT THU IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER HISPANIOLA 24 HOURS AGO HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND IS FINALLY LIFTING TO THE N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS HAS DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA IS LIFTING SLOWLY N AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRES AREA STARTING TO MOVE FROM THE SE GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE STALLING WARM FRONT WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF S FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA NEAR 30N77W BY LATE MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BY LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES S OF 22N W OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.