000 AGXX40 KNHC 081902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 23N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 18N95W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. NW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING...THEN WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT BY SUN MORNING. CURRENTLY...NONE OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IN NOT OUT OF A QUESTION SOME GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 BY SUN MORNING. FOR MON THROUGH MID WEEK...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SEAS TO 6 FT OFF TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS BY LATE MON. THIS WEAKENS TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 22N97W WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS NEW COLD FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDED FROM 20N62W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS MAINLY WEST OF THE THROUGH AXIS WHILE BUOY 41043 REPORTED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN BY LATE SUN. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...AN ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...THEN MOVE SE AGAIN SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AS THE LOW PRES NOW LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BY SUN MORNING...THE LOW PRES WILL REACH A POSITION NEAR 30N79W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW BY LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES S OF 22N W OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.