000 AGXX40 KNHC 080739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT IN THE SW GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 24N95W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 18N94W. A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA FARTHER INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. THE MAIN INFLUENCE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS S TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. THIS IS COMING INTO PHASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AND ALLOW THE LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES TOWARD SE FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR TONIGHT AND SUN...THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNINGS OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ON THIS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY AGGRESSIVE SREF NOW BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES...AND THE PREVIOUSLY WEAK GFS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL. THE RAPID W TO E MOVEMENT OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER FEATURES FAVORS A WEAKER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR STRONG WINDS OFF VERACRUZ...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO 30 KT SUN MORNING IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF. SEAS WILL REACH 9 TO 11 FT IN CLOSE TO THE PORT OF VERACRUZ AND TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. FOR MON THROUGH MID WEEK...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SEAS TO 6 FT OFF TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS BY LATE MON. THIS WEAKENS TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLAND THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE EXTENDED FROM 21N64W THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN BY LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...BUT HAVE LITTLE TANGIBLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF 55W...RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND RELATED NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL OF TO 8 FT. THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS LEAVING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N75W TO 24N73W WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND TOGETHER DAMPEN OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COMBINED TROUGH LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE REGION MON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA CURRENTLY AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE. THIS WILL LIFT N TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...THEN MOVE SE AGAIN SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES S OF 22N E OF 70W. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO WIND SPEED OR WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH MID WEEK ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE CONTINUING WEEK PRES PATTERN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.