000 AGXX40 KNHC 071829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY... THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO 25N95W...THEN MEANDERING SOUTH ALONG 96W TO THE MEXICAN COAST TO 19N96W. RECENT BUOY AND ADJUSTED OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS... PLUS RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 15 UTC INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT GENERALLY N OF 26N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...LIGHT TO GENTLE N TO NE WINDS PERSIST. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE FRONT IS A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NE UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO A NEWLY FORMED 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N93W TO 19N96W BY SAT. ON SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER W TEXAS WILL COME INTO PHASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AND ALLOW THE LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES TOWARD SE FLORIDA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR LATE SAT AND SUN...THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY 20 TO 25 KT OFF VERACRUZ DURING THIS TIME...LIKELY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE W TO E MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER IMPULSES. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS A MEAGER 10 PERCENT AREA...WHILE LATEST UKMET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH 25 TO 30 KT FLOW. THE WATER REMAINS FAIRLY WARM IN THIS AREA THAT WILL SUPPORT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FUNNELING ALONG THE COASTAL TERRAIN. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THIS WELL TO THE EAST BY LATE SAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES WINDS TO 30 KT OFF VERACRUZ WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE PATTERN WEAKENS LATER ON SUN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. FOR MON AND TUE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SEAS TO 6 FT OFF TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS BY LATE MON. THIS WEAKENS TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SUBTLE HINTS IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO S-SW TO THE EASTERN GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN BY LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...BUT HAVE LITTLE TANGIBLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF 55W...RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND RELATED NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT. THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS LEAVING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS EMERGED OFF THE MID-ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IT MOVES EAST AND THE OVERALL ENERGY LIFTS N. SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST THE REMNANTS WILL DRAPE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT...STALL...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 29N65W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY SAT. THEREAFTER...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRES. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN...LEAVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.