000 AGXX40 KNHC 070754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR SREF IN FAR SW GULF FOR SUN. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO DEVELOPING 1017 MB LOW PRES OFF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...THEN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 20N97W. RECENT BUOY AND ADJUSTED PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG N OF THE FRONT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS PERSIST. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE FRONT IS A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY AND REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W TO 22M98W. FOR SATURDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER W TEXAS WILL COME INTO PHASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT AND ALLOW THE LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES INTO SE FLORIDA. FOR LATE SAT AND SUN...THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OFF VERACRUZ. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY 20 TO 25 KT OFF VERACRUZ FOR THIS TIME...LIKELY DUE THE PROGRESSIVE W TO E MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER IMPULSES. THE SREF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW...WITH THE SREF ALSO INDICATING A DECENT CHANCE FOR GALES OVER A LIMITED AREA OFF VERACRUZ. THE WATER REMAINS FAIRLY WARM IN THIS AREA THAT WILL SUPPORT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FUNNELING ALONG THE COASTAL TERRAIN. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THIS WELL TO THE EAST BY LATE SAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES WINDS TO 30 KT OFF VERACRUZ WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE PATTERN WEAKENS LATER ON SUN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. FOR MON AND TUE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SEAS TO 6 FT OFF TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS BY LATE MON. THIS WEAKENS TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY LATE TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHARP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THERE WERE SUBTLE HINTS IN A 01 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE HAD MATERIALIZED S OF PUERTO RICO. A PATCH OF E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE NOTED NEAR 14N65W. THE UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TODAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DAMPEN OUT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...BUT HAVE LITTLE TANGIBLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF 55W...RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATED FRESH TRADE WINDS AND RELATED EAST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT. THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS LEAVING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 30N69W IS LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NE AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A 01 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25 KT WINDS ON THE SIDE OF THIS LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW AS IT LIFTS N. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WAS ANALYZED AT 06 UTC OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. STRONG NE FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS N OF GRAND BAHAMA OFF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...THEN STALL AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIFTS NE IN PHASE WITH THE EXITING IMPULSE N OF THE AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE SE GULF BY LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRES. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN...LEAVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.