000 AGXX40 KNHC 061803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 103 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N90W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF WATERS THU AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-SW INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDS TO A BASE OVER THE SE CONUS AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS/NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 31N107W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INITIALLY OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED EARLY FRI THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONDS...DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY SAT...AND MOVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SAT. A SMALL SHIELD OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NW AND W QUADRANT OF THE LOW LATE FRI THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN MORNING. THEREAFTER NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 WILL PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHORT DURATION GALE FORCE CONDITIONS S OF 21N W OF 94W SUN...HOWEVER CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST... WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...REMAINS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...DUE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO THE WEST AS THE ENERGY IS STRETCHED AND ABSORBED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INITIALLY TO 9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI ACROSS THE NW GULF...THEN AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE MEXICO COAST FARTHER...THE INITIAL AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT W OF THE FRONT ON SAT. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF SUN AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 26N70W IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY RELAXED AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. RECENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH EARLIER MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE DATA SHOW GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THE OVERALL TREND OF CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EAST TRADES E OF 75W AND LIGHT TO GENTLE NE WINDS W OF 75W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E OF 75W AND 2-4 FT RANGE W OF 75W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND ENTER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE SUN WHILE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY MONDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC REGION WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT BY MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AS OF 1200 UTC...WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N67W INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEAS RANGING 8-9 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE...FRESH NE-E WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT OVER NW PORTIONS. THE HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES N-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS APPARENT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRI. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT EARLY FRI EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO 27N80W FRI... WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THEN FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY EARLY SAT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINK THE NEARLY DISSIPATED COLD FRONT SAT TO LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.