000 AGXX40 KNHC 060803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THU. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT LOWERS SEAS OF 1-3 FT NE OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WELL OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. HIGH PRES OVER N OF 25N E OF 92W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS TRANSITIONED TO A STATIONARY FRONT...AND AS OF 0600 UTC THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO BORDER AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS SW TO W ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ENERGY HELPING TO FUEL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO RESUME COLD FRONT STATUS. THIS FORECAST WILL MAITAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST COLD FRONT POSITIONS ACROSS THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WSW TO INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 26N96W ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF INDUCING SEAS UP TO 9 FT WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS OF 10 FT. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS W TO LOW PRES IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF 24N93W. THE COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUES FROM THE LOW SSW TO THE AREA OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MODELS INCLUDING THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL POSITION OF THE LOW...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY STATED. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT MORE THAN ONE LOW PRES FEATURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NE TO E ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DIMINISHES TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES FEATURES ALONG IT QUICKLY TRANSLATE NE OF THE AREA ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND TO THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC BY EARLY SUN AND WHILE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEAKENS. THIS SAME HIGH PRES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO SE OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW(S) ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY ACQUIRING MORE MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MOST ZONES. RELATED VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING SW NORTH ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM JUST E OF PUERTO RICO TO JUST N OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY REPORTS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONFINED TO SW OF CUBA N OF ABOUT 19N AND BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS PREVIOUSLY NOTED THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE 4-6 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT DUE TO MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS ARE OBSERVED. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE SEA PRODUCING THE MODERATE NE WINDS SW OF CUBA WILL THEN SLACKEN ALLOWING FOR THESE TO DIMINISH TO THE GENTLE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SUBSIDE INTO THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT BY THU EVENING AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES RATHER TRANQUIL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT...AND SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE ONGOING SWELL ENERGY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA AS HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS OF 0600 UTC...THIS FEATURE WAS PRESENT JUST TO THE E OF THE FORECAST WATERS. A 1011 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 26N70W WITH A WEAK TROUGH S TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 31N67W. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT INDICATED A 3600 NM WIDE SWATH OF NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE...FRESH NE-E WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT OVER NW PORTIONS. THE HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES W ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS APPARENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES FEATURE MOVES IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI AS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N68W SW TO 25N74W TO EASTERN CUBA...AND WEAKENS OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 29N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TO 27N80W BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WARM FRONT...AND AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM S FLORIDA OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA BY MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.