000 AGXX40 KNHC 051828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 128 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THU. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THE HIGH PRES SHIFTING EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STATIONARY FRONT TO MEANDER ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BECOME INVIGORATED ONCE AGAIN BY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY EARLY FRI...THE NOW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WSW TO INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 26N96W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EASTWARD TO LOW PRES NEAR 24N93W...THEN SOUTH ALONG 93W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SUN. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG 25N/26N THEN INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A SW NORTH ATLC STATIONARY FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ORIGINATING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING SW TO 17N77W SOUTH OF JAMAICA. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS DEPICTED AN AREA OF 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE AREA SURROUNDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SW HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 6 TO 8 FT WEST OF THE FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THU AS THE HIGH PRES INDUCED GRADIENT TO ITS NW SLACKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SUBSIDE INTO THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT BY THU EVENING AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES RATHER TRANQUIL FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW N ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH E SWELLS OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO 8 FT. HOWEVER...THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 6-7 FT THU NIGHT AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N56W TO 25N65W TO 19N67W. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A 240 NM WIDE SWATH OF NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE...FRESH NE-E WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT OVER NW PORTIONS. THE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES WEST AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS APPARENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 26N70W BY THU MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN A GENERAL N-NW DIRECTION THROUGH LATE THU...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH EARLY FRI. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SUN...THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.