000 AGXX40 KNHC 050757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT E OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 28N86W TO 30N92W. WITH THE HIGH PRES SHIFTING EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING AND STALL. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT OUT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO A POSITION TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO NEAR 25N95W...AND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. THE FRONT MAY STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR SE GULF FRI AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SAT. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR WITH LOW POSITION OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLN DIFFERS FROM THE GFS AND NAM IN SHOWING MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH LOW VERSUS A NE TRACK AS SEEN IN THE GFS AND NAM. BELIEVE THE NE TRACK IS THE THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. A SURGE OF HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF AND FRI AND FRI NIGHT DIMINISHING ON SAT. SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-13 FT FRI...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT. FRESH NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF FRI...LOWERING TO MODERATE ON SAT AND SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SW N ATLC STATIONARY FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR TO NEAR 16N75W TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0246 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FILTERING SW FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 15N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT W OF 70W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THU AS THE HIGH PRES INDUCED GRADIENT TO ITS NW SLACKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE 6-7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT BY THU EVENING. LARGE NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW N ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH E SWELLS OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO 8 FT. HOWEVER...THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 6-7 FT THU NIGHT AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 0600 UTC JUST SE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0108 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A LARGE SWATH OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 23N E OF 72W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE NE-E FRESH IN STRENGTH...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT OVER THE NW PORTION. THE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES BACK W AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW IS APPARENT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH MAY GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN WATERS LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN MOVE TOWARDS A GENERAL NW DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NE ON AND ACCELERATE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER LATE THU NIGHT...THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH EARLY FRI...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N66W TO NEAR 25N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRI NIGHT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W. STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE LATE SAT AS ITS WESTERN REMNANTS TRANSITION TO A N TO S ORIENTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS SUN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.