000 AGXX40 KNHC 041816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 116 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT THEN ADVANCE ACROSS THE W GULF THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM APALACHEE BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI...THEN DRIFT SE OF THE GULF SAT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI WITH SMALL AREA OF NEAR GALES IN SW GULF. GFS MODEL AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM GALE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. SREF GALE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO WILL REFRAIN FROM KEEPING A GALE WARNING THERE UNTIL GREATER LIKELIHOOD BASED ON BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASS AT 1450 UTC SHOWED SOLID AREA OF NE 25 KT WINDS SW OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LONG DURATION NE FETCH FROM ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN DIMINISH AFTER WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. MIXED E AND NW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NE PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONT SE OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT BACK WNW AS A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM WED AND WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN WATERS THEN TURN N AND NE THU AND FRI...MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRI NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING...EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO LAKE OKECHOBEE FRI...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 30N70W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT IN NW PORTION FRI AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE WEAKENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.