000 AGXX40 KNHC 041025 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 525 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO TO ADD MENTION OF SREF PROBABILITIES AND NAM GUIDANCE MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A EVEN BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE WIND FLOW HAS RESPONDED BY BECOMING E TO SE THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR SE WIND FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOLID 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. WITH THE HIGH PRES SHIFTING EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST ON WED THEN STALL. REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND IT OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 25N95W...AND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THU EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI...AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF SAT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF GENERALLY W OF ABOUT 95W LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI...WITH 20-30 KT NW WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 93W FRI NIGHT AND SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE SREF MODEL PROBABILITIES IS ADVERTISING INCREASING GALE WIND CHANCES FOR THE FAR SW GULF PORTION FROM THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRI. THE LATEST NAM RUN VALID AT 0600 UTC DEFINES A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF FROM THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 15 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF EARLY ON FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 FT ON SAT. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SW N ATLC STATIONARY FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA SW TO 16N75W TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0308 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SOLID AREA OF NE 25 KT WINDS SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT PER OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42056 AND 42057. STRONGER NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ITS APPROACHES AS WERE RECENTLY REPORTED BY SHIP SAILING THROUGH THOSE WATERS. LARGE NE FETCH AND LONG DURATION NE FLOW FROM THE ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO 10 FT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER VALUES AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH AT TIMES REACHING 25 KT ARE E OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO N OF 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES INDUCED GRADIENT TO ITS NW SLACKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME LINGERING NE 20 TO 25 KT JUST S OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. THE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND 6 TO 7 FT EARLY WED...AND TO MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3 FT BY THU EVENING. LARGE NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW N ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL MIX WITH E SWELLS OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO 8 FT. HOWEVER...THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 6 TO 7 FT THU AS THE SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF THE 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 0600 UTC OVER THE SE PORTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0130 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS. RECENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT IN NW SWELLS WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. ELSEWHERE... WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE NE AND E AND DIMINISHED TO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 FT. THE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE SE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED. THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION DURING WED WHILE MOVING TOWARDS A GENERAL NW DIRECTION INTO THU. THE LOW WILL THEN ACCELERATE NE AND WEAKEN A TROUGH AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT...THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S FLORIDA EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N67W TO NEAR 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRI NIGHT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR 30N65W TO NEAR 26N74W. STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WITH REGARDS TO THE POSSIBLE LOW FORMING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NDFD GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ023...GALE WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI W OF 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.