000 AGXX40 KNHC 031830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST ON WED THEN STALL. REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND IT OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25N95W AND SOUTH TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU... FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N93W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF GENERALLY W OF 95W LATE THU AND FRI...WITH 20-30 KT NW WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 93W FRI NIGHT AND SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TONIGHT AND TUE THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N-NE OF THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS TO DEVELOP N OF THE SHEAR LINE TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT N-NW OF THE REGION WILL MIX WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL AND BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 21N TUE AND WED... THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THU. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND FOR WINDS. WW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 23N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER SE WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE FROM 21N63W TO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER NE WINDS NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SHEAR LINE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE WED AND WED NIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE W-NW AS A TROUGH OR LOW PRES SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW FORMING AND DEVELOPING NEAR 24N67W WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THEN MOVING NW TO AROUND 26N71W THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN ACCELERATING NE AND WEAKENING TO A TROUGH AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING...EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO LAKE OKECHOBEE FRI...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 30N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT IN NW PORTION FRI AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.