000 AGXX40 KNHC 030750 AAD MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 0000 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WESTERN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THU IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST WED. THIS FRONT WILL STALL...THEN BEGIN TO ADVANCE ESE AS A COLD FRONT ON THU AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES PUSHES ESE BEHIND IT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PSN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THU...AND TO E OF THE GULF ON FRI. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY TO LARGE VALUES. THE GFS MODEL PINCHES OFF A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF THU INTO FRI SHOWING A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT THERE THAN OTHER MODELS. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A NOT SO AGGRESSIVE SOLN OF THE GFS FOR THE TIME BEING...AND AWAIT FOR THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY PAN OUT WITH THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT THERE. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE A GALE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE FOR THU AND FRI PENDING OUTCOME OF NEXT MODEL RUNS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED LATEST AVAILABLE NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SW N ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI SW TO JUST SE OF JAMAICA...AND CONTINUES SW TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. LATEST ASCAT PASSES ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RELATIVELY LARGE SWATH OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 85W. THE BUOY REPORTS AND EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATES SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. SIMILAR WINDS ARE FILTERING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NE 20 TO 25 KT WILL SUBSIDE AT THAT TIME WITH THE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA WILL ALSO DIMINISH WED. NW SWELLS MIXED WITH E SWELLS WILL INTRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE...THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 6 TO 7 FT LATE WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL OF GFS/ECMWF. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 0000 UTC MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 25N65W SW TO HAITI. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN N OF ABOUT 28N AND BETWEEN 69W AND 79W. BUOYS ARE REPORTING LARGE COMBINED SEA STATE OF UP TO 14 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT NLY WINDS ARE LIGHTER...IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE... HOWEVER SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN NW TO NW SWELLS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT... THEN STALL TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. WILL BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS HE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG NE WINDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS TUE INTO WED. THE STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH OR LOW WED...THEN TURN TO THE N AND NE OVER THE NE PORTION THU BEFORE POSSIBLY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NDFD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MATERIALIZATION OF THIS FEATURE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.