000 AGXX40 KNHC 020741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OF THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND REACHES FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SW GULF. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE EASTERN GULF. BUOY...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NE GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE SE GULF. AN EVENING ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR AREA OFF NW CUBA BETWEEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE APPROACHES TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...BUT E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZES OFF THE S TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH REMAINS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFS SOLUTION ALTHOUGH MODERATED SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED/EARLY THU. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION SHOWING FUNNELING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ BY MIDDAY THU. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN THE STILL WARM WATERS OVER THE SW GULF...ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...APPROACHING A WEAKER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ON THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA. N TO NE WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE TODAY AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PAST JAMAICA TO ALMOST THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 10 FT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA DRIFTS EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WED AND THU. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA NE AND E OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND FROM MON THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS APPROACHING IT FROM THE WEST...REACHING FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. BUOY 41002 JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N75W REPORTED SEAS TO 21 FT A FEW HOURS AGO. BUOYS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VEERING NW BEHIND THE SECOND STRONGER FRONT AND ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. GALES WILL END S OF 31N BY 18 UTC IF NOT SOONER. THE STRONGER FRONT WILL CATCH UP AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT TODAY AND THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE TODAY. STRONG W TO NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT N OF 27N THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO AT LEAST 8 FT GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND REACH JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON...PROMOTING STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BY LATE MON...THEN ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK. COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 65W AND THE BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 FT MON AND TUE...WITH CONTRIBUTING COMPONENTS FROM LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL ADDED TO SE SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES DUE TO THE STRONG NE BREEZES. THE NE COMPONENT GRADUALLY BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK LOW PRES FORMING BY LATE WED JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING NNW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS LARGELY DIMINISH NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY WED AS THE LOW FORMS. SW FLOW MAY INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.