000 AGXX40 KNHC 011901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SECONDARY FRONT WITH STRONG CAA HAS BLASTED S-SE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING AND NOW MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND APPROACHING N COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE CHANNEL. BRIEF GALES WERE DEPICTED ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT EXITING MS AND SE LA COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD EWD BEHIND FRONT...LIKELY MAINLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS ALL THE WAY TO TAMPA BAY WHERE COASTAL OBS SHOWED 2 HOURS OF 30G35 KT OCCURRED. GALES HAVE ENDED AS WINDS ARE BACKING OFF NOW AND FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND VEER QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT ACROSS STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS SUN NIGHT. PEAK SEAS OF 11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD BRIEFLY HIT 12 FT. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...A 1029 TO 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE BREEZES OVER PRIMARILY THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE SE GULF AND OFF THE TEXAS TAMAULIPAS COASTS IN THE NW GULF...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. MODELS DIFFERING ON NEXT FRONTAL ARRIVAL IN TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT-THU WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OR NEAR COAST. UKMET AND GFS BRING FRONT INTO NW COASTAL WATERS WITH GFS THEN STALLING FRONT WHILE SW GULF COASTAL TROUGH ALLOW NLY FLOW TO SPILL SWD TO NEAR GALES...WHILE 00Z ECMWF FRONT STALLS BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AT PRESENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 80W AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AND INTERACTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN BY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOW SUGGEST SMALL PORTION OF ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE WWD INTO EPAC AND COMBINE WITH PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TO PERTURB THE MONSOON TROUGH. FIRST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NW CARIB AND NOW FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO OUTER WATERS OF GULF OF HONDURAS WITH NLY FLOW AROUND 20 KT FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRIDGING ACROSS AND INTO GULF OF HONDURAS ATTM. BUOY 42056 RESPONDING AND NOW UP TO 6 FT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY TO 6-9 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO BRIEFLY DEVELOPS THERE. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 4 FT OR LESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK SEAS TO 5 FT SE WATERS OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA. SECOND FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND NEARLY MERGE WITH FIRST FRONT AS IT STALLS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N COAST OF HONDURAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRIDGING ACROSS A FRONT TO NEAR 70W THROUGH SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS TUE THROUGH WED AS FRONTAL REMNANTS BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT SHIFTS E OFF MID ATLC COAST. MODELS FORECASTING NELY WIND FUNNELING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND 25 KT SUN EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING AND COULD PEAK NEAR 30 KT AND 10 FT JUST NE OF JAMAICA. SIMILAR FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA E OF 82W EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA START TO MAKE A COME BACK AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FIRST MODEST COLD FRONT NOW REACHES FROM 31N70W TO E CENTRAL CUBA WHILE DRY SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND FLORIDA FROM 31N76W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GALES OCCURRING BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT N OF 29N REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE ASSOCIATED LOW CURRENTLY ALONG COAST OF CAROLINAS LIFTS NE AND GALES EXIT WATERS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SUN. I HAD ENDED GALES AT 12S SUN WITH 12Z ISSUANCE OF HSF BUT LATEST GFS CONTINUING GALES ALONG 31N AT 12Z SO WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER 3-6 HOURS. BUOY 41010 NOW TO 11 FT BEHIND SECOND FRONT WITH PEAK SEAS ALONG AND JUST N OF 31N IN THE LOW 20S TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. FRONT TO GRADUALLY OR NEARLY MERGE BY 72 HRS FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO NW COAST OF HAITI WITH INVERTED TROFFING STILL INDICATED BY MODELS SHIFTING FROM NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS S OF 22N SLOWLY WWD...MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND SHIFT SLOWLY WNW TO ALONG 71-72W BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE N THEN NE. BROAD LOW FORECAST BY MODELS BUT ATTM LOOKS BENIGN. SWELL FROM COLD FRONT TO REACH ATLC COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS EARLY MON AND QUICKLY PEAK MON WITH SECONDARY PULSE OF MORE NNW SWELL THEN ARRIVING TUE MORNING. FETCH WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO WLY AND LOW MOVING NNE AND AWAY FROM AREA AND NOT ALLOWING FOR LARGE SWELL OR MAREJADAS DE LOS MUERTOS...YET. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.