000 AGXX40 KNHC 010800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A 0230 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THE ONSET OF STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MARKED CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BETWEEN SITES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BUOYS AND PLATFORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH LATE SAT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AS IS MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE. STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BUT STAY BELOW GALE FORCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS DO NOT INDICATE FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR THAT MATTER. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 12 FT TODAY IN THE NE GULF ACCORDINGLY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO A PREVIOUS WEAKER COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SE GULF...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW GULF. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...A 1029 TO 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE BREEZES OVER PRIMARILY THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE SE GULF AND OFF THE TEXAS TAMAULIPAS COASTS IN THE NW GULF...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AND INTERACTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NW CARIB BY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AS ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGES TO NEAR BERMUDA. SEAS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE IN CARIB CURRENTLY...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS. THIS IS A PRELUDE TO A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY LATE TODAY AND ENTER THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT SHIFTS SE REACHING A POSITION FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS SUN. STRONG WILL COVER THE NW GULF AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM SUN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA START TO MAKE A COME BACK AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONT REACHES FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS SE. A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TODAY...AND REACH FROM 31N73W TO NW CUBA BY LATE TODAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING ACROSS STILL WARM ATLC WATERS W OF 66W SHOULD ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND HAVE BLENDED IN 925 MB WINDS TO REFLECT THIS...AND MATCHING REASONABLY WELL WITH SIMILAR PROCESS BY OPC. W TO NW GALE WARNINGS EXPECTED NW WATERS BY 12Z SAT SHIFTING ESE AND INTO FAR NW CORNER OF AMZ115 SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO NE SUN 12-15Z. ASSOCIATED SWELL NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF 40 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT IS GENERATING SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT PER LATEST NWPS RUN. W TO SW GALE WARNINGS TO 35 KT EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND ACTUALLY BETWEEN FRONTS THROUGH 48 HRS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS PATTERN. NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT MAY EVOLVE FROM INVERTED TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG ABOUT 70W TUE- WED AND RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT TO THE W AND NW. SEE ABOVE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.