000
AGXX40 KNHC 291758
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE E LATER TODAY AND QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N86W AT
SUNRISE ON THU. A STRONGER AND DRIER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS FRI NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SE OF
THE GULF EARLY SAT NIGHT. NLY WIND INCREASE NW OF THE FRONT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON SUN WITH 15-20 KT E-SE RETURN
FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
     
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED AND THU AND LOSE IDENTITY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI. WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 20N62W WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 19N65W TONIGHT...NEAR 20N67W THU NIGHT AND NEAR 20N69W FRI
NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT...REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA ON SAT NIGHT...REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COSTA
RICA ON SUN NIGHT WITH FRESH N WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IN ITS WAKE.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 20N62W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19N65W TONIGHT...NEAR
20N67W THU NIGHT...NEAR 20N69W FRI NIGHT AND NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE OFF
THE SE GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THU MORNING AND MOVE
SLOWLY SE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA
COAST ON ON FRI MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONTS ON FRI NIGHT. THE
MERGED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO TO E CUBA EARLY SAT
AND FROM 31N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME A SHEAR AXIS TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.