000 AGXX40 KNHC 271824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN ECMWF ADDED THU ONWARD. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N WATERS WED NIGHT AND RECEIVES A SECONDARY PUSH THU NIGHT THAT ACCELERATES IT SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS THIS SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE 00Z/27 ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGER AREA OF FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF BY SUN MORNING. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED REASONABLE FROM THU ONWARD. SEAS IN THE ECMWF AND NWPS ARE GENERALLY HIGHER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE MWW3. WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SOLUTION PREFERRED...THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF ADDED THU NIGHT ONWARD. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS...WITH EC WAVE ADDED THU NIGHT ONWARD IN ATLC WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS OF 1800 UTC...MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS INLAND NEAR 14.9N 83.5W OR ABOUT 40 KM W-SW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT WERE MEASURED BY A JASON-2 PASS WITHIN 120 NM N-NW OF THE CENTER. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWED WINDS AS STRONG AS THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 0300 UTC THIS MORNING. THE GFS WAS INITIALIZED BEST...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT AT 1200 UTC. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS...WITH MAJOR MANUAL EDITS TO ACCOMMODATE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS HANNA CONTINUES INLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION BY TUE. THE OTHER MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 54W AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ENERGY ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE TO BE PICKED UP BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N55W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH SW INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 16N TO 20N. THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER THE UPPER LOW LEAVES IT BEHIND TUE AND BEFORE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM LATE WED. THE STRONG GFS WAS THE BEST INITIALIZED OF THE MODELS HERE AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THROUGH WED. A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS USED THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AS THIS BLEND IS PREFERRED OVERALL IN THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF ADDED THU ONWARD. NWPS/MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS...WITH ECMWF ADDED THU NIGHT ONWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THU. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS...BUT THEY ARE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE ATLC WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/27 ECMWF HELPED LESSEN UNCERTAINTY. THE SAME BLEND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. OVER SE WATERS...PLEASE SEE THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC DISCUSSION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY A LOW...N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.