000
AGXX40 KNHC 261740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS 
BLENDED WITH WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1019 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N92W 
WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA EARLY MON. AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA WED THEN WEAKEN THU. EXPECT MODERATE S RETURN 
FLOW MON AND TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT...WILL DIMINISH 
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ATLC HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E AND A BROAD 
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL 
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. BUILDING HIGH PRES IN E TEXAS 
NW OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN NE WINDS ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT.
    
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS 
BLENDED WITH WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
 
A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW 
NEAR 16N82W. THE LOW WILL MEANDER TONIGHT THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS MON AND TUE AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE 
NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 16N WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON...REACH THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WED...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL REACH TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 19N 
MON...THEN PASS THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED INTO THE SW 
ATLC. 

ALTHOUGH ALL MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE LOW W ACROSS THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 
GFS WHICH SUGGESTS 25-30 KT SO USING BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO 
SHOW 20-25 KT WINDS VEERING FROM W SEMICIRCLE TO NE SEMICIRCLE 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED AS WELL.
        
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS 
BLENDED WITH WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA MON...THEN DRIFT 
W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER 
THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E 
NORTH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL PASS THROUGH 
THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED INTO THE SW ATLC N OF THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING OUT 
OF THE WAVE NEAR 20N61W WED NIGHT...WHICH MOVES NW TO 21N63W THU 
THEN N TO 24N63W FRI WITH SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NE 
QUADRANT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE THE WAY OF 
LOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO HIGH WNW VERTICAL SHEAR LATER IN THE WEEK 
BUT SMALL AREA OF HIGHER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS E-NE OF WAVE 
AXIS APPEARS LIKELY...AND IS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.