000 AGXX40 KNHC 240534 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FL BAY WSW TO 21N93W. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. EXPECT THE LOW TO RAPIDLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE TODAY AND DRAG THE FRONT SE AGAIN REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE AND S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TILL ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN NIGHT WITH A E-W RIDGE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT. EXPECT 10-15 KT E- SE FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT...AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 44W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE. LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME W CUBA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS LATE SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NW-N ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW ON SAT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST THE FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MOVE W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN-TUE WITH THE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 3163W TO 27N71W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO SE FL. A SURFACE LOW OVER W CUBA WILL MERGE WITH FRONT EARLY TODAY AND LIFT RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE DRAGGING THE STATIONARY PORTION SE AGAIN. A 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 26N76W AND STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL GALE BY SUNSET TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE RACING NE TO NEAR 28N70W AT SUNRISE SAT AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA AT SUNSET SAT WITH GALE CONDITIONS ALREADY DISSIPATED. BY THE THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SUN. THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 25N WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE ON MON WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT CONTINUES E AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE FL COAST NEAR 30N79W ON SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO NE FL ON TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W ON MON-TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SAT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.