000 AGXX40 KNHC 190538 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING N OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WITH GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF...1-3 FT OVER THE NW GULF...AND 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW TRACKING ENE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE STRONGEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW GFS THROUGH TUE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AFTER THEN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN SUBSIDING SWELL FROM GONZALO OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TODAY AND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.