000 AGXX40 KNHC 181839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWARD THE COAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS STARTING EARLY SUN...WITH THE LOW TRACKING ENE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING AND THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE STRONGEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE. GIVEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ STARTING TUE NIGHT...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THE LATEST SREF OUTPUT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW GFS THROUGH TUE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AFTER TUE EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO HAS MOVED N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NE WATERS STARTING TO COME DOWN. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA E OF 70W. THE MWW3 DOES NOT INITIALIZE WITH THIS VERY WELL AND IS SEVERAL FEET BELOW SOME BUOYS. THE LATEST NWPS IS BETTER...BUT IS STILL NOT SHOWING SEAS HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...PARTICULARLY AROUND BUOY 41046 NEAR 23N68W. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REAMAIN ACTIVE ALONG A WEAK TROUGH FROM 26N65W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SUN AND ACROSS THE AREA...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON MONDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE E WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WED AS THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THU IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SLIGHTLY INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS RELATED TO THE LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.