000 AGXX40 KNHC 180520 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW TRACKING ENE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING AND THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AFTER TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PREVAILED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE GONZALO HAS MOVED N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NE WATERS STARTING TO COME DOWN. WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS HAVE DECREASED TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MORNING...WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL DECREASE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT BY SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SUN. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WED EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.