000 AGXX40 KNHC 171806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM ALONG THE DYING BOUNDARY FROM THE SW GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A LIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY SUN...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF. A WIDE VARIETY OF OPINION CONTINUES AMONG MAJOR MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS RETAINS THE TITLE OF MOST AGGRESSIVE...INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD NON- TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER THAT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND THAT MOVES INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BY TUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG E FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CURRENTLY. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT IN NE SWELL RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. AS HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MON OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MAJOR HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO MOVING N OF THE AREA TOWARD BERMUDA WHILE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO...WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE W OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS DUE TO SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SAT AS GONZALO CONTINUES TO MOVE N OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.