000 AGXX40 KNHC 170542 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AS WELL AS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 2-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THAT TIME. ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING THE STRONGEST LOW AND TRACKING THE FEATURE INTO THE SE GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING A WEAKER SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT MORE BLEND OF ECMWF TO TEMPER SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR NE WATERS WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO...WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE W OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS DUE TO SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE ON A NE TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF THE FORECAST WATERS TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.