000 AGXX40 KNHC 160531 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 23N87W THEN CONTINUES TO THE SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 18N93W. 1019 MB HIGH PRES HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF LOCATED NEAR 27N94W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE E-SE TO NEAR 26N85W. THE LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE FRONT S OF 21N E OF 95W WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY UP TO 8 FT...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 25N AND 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN LATER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE STALLED OUT PORTION WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE E REACHING THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH SAT WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 2-3 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AFTER SAT. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP BROAD LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...20-25 KT...UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE N AWAY FROM THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN- WIDE WHILE BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA REPORT 3-5 FT SEAS E OF 73W AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 73W. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATING NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS...EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO IS MOVING TO THE N NOW WITH MAJOR IMPACTS CONTINUING TO BE FELT IN ZONE AMZ121 WITH THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STORM IMPACTING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AMZ113 AND AMZ119...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO AMZ115 SW OF BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS GONZALO ON ITS CLOSEST APPROACH FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SWELLS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WELL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF 80W OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING AS GONZALO MOVES NE OF THE AREA WHILE RAPIDLY ACCELERATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW AND FAR W PORTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. A PRECEDING LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS WITHIN 120-180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY N OF 27N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...THEN WILL QUICKLY LOSE DEFINITION FRI AS THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NE AND THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF EXITING GONZALO. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DEPARTING GONZALO FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ALONG 27N SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT STALLING ALONG 29N/30N MON INTO MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE GONZALO EXITS AND SEAS WILL BE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.