000 AGXX40 KNHC 151810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH ECMWF BLEND BY MON. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO 23N88W BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18.5N93W IN THE FAR SW GULF. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT S OF 22N. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE VOLATILE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SIMILARLY SEAS ARE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT SAGS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE SHOWING HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF INTO FRI...THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND STALLING ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE FAR SW GULF THIS WEEKEND. MOST MODELS INDICATE LOWER TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY EMERGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND S CENTRAL MEXICO...THEN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE SW GULF FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF...BUT THE RECENT 12Z GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY LATE MON NIGHT EARLY TUE OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF...AND THE PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BLENDS IN MORE CONSERVATIVE 00Z ECMWF AT THAT TIME FOR THE WESTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BASIN TODAY. ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SUBSIDING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED ONLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF COLOMBIA. THIS CHECKS WITH REGIONAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL THAT AREA SHOWING SEAS LIMITED TO 2 TO 4 FT OVERALL OUTSIDE OF AREA WHERE NORTHERLY ATLC SWELL IS PUSHING THROUGH THE PASSAGES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THU...BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS...EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS WITH NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE WARNING GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE N THEN NE TOWARD BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDES A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. IT WILL START TO LOSE DEFINITION INTO SAT HOWEVER AS THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NE AND THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HURRICANE GONZALO. OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF HURRICANE GONZALO...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE SHORT PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY GONZALO...ALREADY NOTED IN SURROUNDING BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ENVELOP NEARLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE TOMORROW IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER...THEN DECAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AND SAT FOLLOWING THE HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS WILL BE GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS BY SUN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.