000 AGXX40 KNHC 150720 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 18N93W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VERACRUZ AROUND 03Z AND A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS STILL LIKELY OCCURRING S OF 19.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 96W WHERE A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE SW GULF WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH 1-3 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES ENTERING THE NW PORTION AT 27N93W WHICH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE E REACHING THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA 29N89W FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH SUN WHILE WEAKENING. EXPECT GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF BY THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN THE SW GULF. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ALL SHOW A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING IN RELATIVELY THE SAME LOCATION NE OF VERACRUZ WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AROUND IT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BASIN TODAY. ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SUBSIDING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE AREA AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN ENOUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIPS JUST SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE DISSIPATING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. OTHERWISE IN THE CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 2-4 FT BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS...EXCEPT FOR WINDS OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE GONZALO AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 67.0W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 595 NM TO THE S OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW OR 320 DEGREES 11 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. GONZALO WILL MOVE TO 23.4N 67.6W LATER THIS MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 120 KT...TO 24.9N 68.5W THIS EVENING... 26.3N 68.7W THU MORNING...28.5N 67.7W THU EVENING...THEN ACCELERATING AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES 34.7N 64.1W FRI EVENING. ASSOCIATED SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OUT FROM THE SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE ENTIRE SW N ATLC OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK INDICATES GONZALO APPROACHING VERY NEAR BERMUDA FRI WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GONZALO. AHEAD OF GONZALO...RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 70W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS REPORTED BY REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION...CURRENTLY JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH 31N79W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA THIS EVENING...31N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU MORNING...THEN DISSIPATING AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS GONZALO BEGINS TO EXIT THE BASIN FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY IMPROVE E OF 70W AS THIS OCCURS. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ALONG 26N/27N BY SAT EVENING WITH GENTLE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BASIN-WIDE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO THU. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.