000 AGXX40 KNHC 141836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR VERACRUZ WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS THE LARGE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF 25 TO 30 KT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE BULK OF STRONGER WINDS S OF 26N WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF GALE CONDITIONS...35 TO 40 KT...S OF 21N W OF 95W EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 14/1800 UTC AND REMAIN SHORT IN DURATION...ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC. INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE STRONGER WINDS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE 3 TO 6 FT WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 12 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SE GULF AND WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS BY WED NIGHT LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL VEER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THU THROUGH SAT AS RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE LONGER NE FETCH OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...AND BECOME GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT BY FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE GONZALO WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 65.2W OR ABOUT 340 NM EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...AND ABOUT 720 NM SOUTH OF BERMUDA AS OF 14/1500 UTC. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 11 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N-NW REACHING 21.7N 66.4W EARLY TONIGHT...24.6N 68.6W WED EVENING...THEN TURNING TO THE N AND REACHING 26.1N 68.6W THU MORNING...MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SW N ATLC TO 30.4N 66.5W BY FRI MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE NE CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 70W OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO. AS GONZALO MOVES TO THE NW AND THEN N THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BASIN-WIDE BY WED WHICH WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT W OF 70W WED SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FT THU NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS E OF 70W...BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP SE-S ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE. ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHILE NW SWELL MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 65.2W OR ABOUT 340 NM EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...AND ABOUT 720 NM SOUTH OF BERMUDA AS OF 14/1500 UTC. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 11 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N-NW REACHING 21.7N 66.4W EARLY TONIGHT...24.6N 68.6W WED EVENING...THEN TURNING TO THE N AND REACHING 26.1N 68.6W THU MORNING...MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SW N ATLC TO 30.4N 66.5W BY FRI MORNING...AND WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING 37.4N 62.6W AHEAD OF GONZALO...RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 65W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS REPORTED BY REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION BY EARLY WED MORNING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITH 12Z GFS INDICATING STRONG LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF 32N JUST OUTSIDE NORTHERN TIER ZONES. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SLOW AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA WED EVENING...FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU...THEN DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER AS STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING GONZALO TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BE 8 FT OR HIGHER BASIN-WIDE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THU AND THU NIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BASIN-WIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON AS GONZALO PULLS AWAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK INDICATES GONZALO APPROACHING VERY NEAR BERMUDA FRI...AND PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLAND BY FRI EVENING. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GONZALO AND AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS POSTED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.