000 AGXX40 KNHC 140737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 337 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS CHARGING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO 26N93W TO 22N98W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS LOCATED E OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NE GULF. VERY IMPRESSIVE MULTIPLE LINES OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS INDICATED BY NWS WSR-88D RADAR MOSAICS WITH A SHARP/DIGGING AND VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BUOY DATA SHOW SEAS UP TO 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WERE ALSO INDICATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE E GULF...1-3 FT IN THE SW GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE S OF 21N W OF 95W THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND UKMET SHOW WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW WINDS AT LEAST THIS HIGH WITH VERY WARM WATER IN PLACE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN WITH CONDITIONS BEHIND IT IMPROVING AS WELL AS IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N93W THIS EVENING...MOVING SE-S OF THE BASIN WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT NEAR 28N94W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF AND 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SE HALF. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E REACHING 28N90W FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE GONZALO WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 64.0W OR ABOUT 75 NM NORTHWEST OF ANGUILLA...AND ABOUT 70 NM NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AS OF 14/0600 UTC. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N REACHING 21.5N 66.1W THIS EVENING...24.5N 68.1W WED EVENING...THEN TURNING TO THE N-NE AND REACHING 27.3N 67.9W THU EVENING...MOVING N OF THE SW N ATLC TO 31.5N 65.5W BY FRI EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE NE CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 70W OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO. AS GONZALO MOVES TO THE NW AND THEN N THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BASIN-WIDE BY WED WHICH WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT W OF 70W WED SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FT THU NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS E OF 70W...BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EVEN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP SE-S ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE. ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHILE NW SWELL MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE GONZALO WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 64.0W OR ABOUT 75 NM NORTHWEST OF ANGUILLA...AND ABOUT 70 NM NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AS OF 14/0600 UTC. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 10 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N REACHING 21.5N 66.1W THIS EVENING...24.5N 68.1W WED EVENING...THEN TURNING TO THE N-NE AND REACHING 27.3N 67.9W THU EVENING...MOVING N OF THE SW N ATLC TO 31.5N 65.5W BY FRI EVENING. AHEAD OF GONZALO...RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 65W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS REPORTED BY REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION BY EARLY WED MORNING. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS RIGHT ALONG 31N AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW THE WORST APPEARS TO REMAIN N OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA WED EVENING...FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU MORNING ...THEN WILL LOSE DEFINITION ALTOGETHER AS STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING GONZALO TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BE 8 FT OR HIGHER BASIN-WIDE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BASIN-WIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON AS GONZALO PULLS AWAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT BASIN- WIDE IN THE WAKE OF GONZALO SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES GONZALO VERY NEAR BERMUDA FRI NIGHT...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH...HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.