000 AGXX40 KNHC 131943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 343 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW2 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. PREVIOUS THINKING WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON TRACK WITH LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING SHOWING SOLID AREA OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS...LOCALLY 25 TO 30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF 27N95W GIVEN ASCAT LOW BIAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE...THEN FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING AND PUSHING E-SE OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. GALE WARNING IS POSTED ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE STRONGER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AND THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF STABILIZES FOR THE WEEKEND. -------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--------------------------- RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW-W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS BASIN-WIDE AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF LATER IN THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS LATE MON AFTERNOON...QUICKLY REACHING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING AND PUSHING E-SE OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF...NOW UP TO 30 KT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW WARM SSTS STILL ARE THERE. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AND A GALE WARNING WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 18Z TUE THROUGH 06Z WED. THE LATEST SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NOW NEAR 100 PERCENT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 11-13 FT NEAR THE AREA OF GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS. WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS LEFT BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E TO NEAR THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA LATE THU NIGHT...THEN TO NEAR 29N87W BY LATE FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 62.4W AT 13/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 55 NM SE OF ST. MARTIN AND 160 NM ESE OF ST. THOMAS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. GONZALO IS A RELATIVELY SMALL/TIGHT STORM WARNING AND THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CONFINED TO ZONE AMZ025 BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN COASTAL WATERS AS IT TURNS AND MOVES N OF THE AREA TUE. OTHERWISE...LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADES AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF GONZALO AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH WINDS PULSING TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS/ EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY TUE WITH MODERATE TRADES FOR MID-WEEK...DIMINISHING TO GENTLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 4-7 FT FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF GONZALO. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WED BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND SEAS BRIEFLY UP TO 5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH 00Z ECMWF WAVE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE WATERS W OF 65W WITH LATEST IN- SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS...EXCEPT FRESH EASTERLY FLOW W OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE S FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM WARNING FAY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 2-4 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. A SET OF NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MERGING WITH FAY WILL MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH IMPACTS CURRENTLY FELT ACROSS ZONE AMZ127...AMZ125... AND AMZ121. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN TURNING MORE TO THE NW AS IT ENTERS ZONE AMZ125 TUE...THEN TO THE N AS IT MOVES ACROSS AMZ121 TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN ACROSS AMZ115 THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE TURNING TO THE NE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION WED REACHING FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS THU...THEN DISSIPATING WITH ANY REMAINING INFLUENCE LIFTING N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N. BUILDING SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM GONZALO WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING WED. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... HURRICANE WARNING TUE INTO WED. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.