000 AGXX40 KNHC 130714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW-W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS BASIN-WIDE AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF LATER IN THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS LATE MON AFTERNOON...QUICKLY REACHING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING AND PUSHING E-SE OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF...NOW UP TO 30 KT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW WARM SSTS STILL ARE THERE. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 18Z TUE THROUGH 06Z WED. THE LATEST SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NOW NEAR 100 PERCENT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 11-13 FT NEAR THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS LEFT BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E TO NEAR THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA LATE THU NIGHT...THEN TO NEAR 29N87W BY LATE FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 60.6W AT 03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE AND 75 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. GONZALO IS A RELATIVELY SMALL/TIGHT STORM AND THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CONFINED TO ZONES AMZ023 AND AMZ025 BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN COASTAL WATERS AS IT TURNS AND MOVES N OF THE AREA TUE. OTHERWISE...LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADES AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF GONZALO. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF GONZALO AS THE STORM WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS PULSING TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS/EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY TUE WITH MODERATE TRADES FOR MID-WEEK...DIMINISHING TO GENTLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 4-7 FT FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF GONZALO. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WED BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND SEAS BRIEFLY UP TO 5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE WATERS W OF 65W WITH LATEST IN- SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS...EXCEPT FRESH EASTERLY FLOW W OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE S FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 2-4 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. A SET OF NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MERGING WITH FAY WILL MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH IMPACTS CURRENTLY FELT ACROSS ZONE AMZ127. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN TURNING MORE TO THE NW AS IT ENTERS ZONE AMZ125 TUE...THEN TO THE N AS IT MOVES ACROSS AMZ121 TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN ACROSS AMZ115 THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE TURNING TO THE NE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WED MORNING SLOWLY REACHING FROM 31N77W TO BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES FROM 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AS GONZALO BECOMES THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N. BUILDING SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM GONZALO WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... HURRICANE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.