000 AGXX40 KNHC 121922 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 322 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1019 MB HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AWAITS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING S-SE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM NEAR CAPE CORAL FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...PUSHING JUST SE OF THE AREA WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL STILL SHOW 35 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ZONE GMZ023. THE SREF CONTINUES TO ALSO SHOW GALE FORCE CONDITIONS NEAR 20N96W AT 18Z TUE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NW GULF WED THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED LOCALLY TO FRESH LEVELS DUE TO A STRENGTHENED RIDGE N OF CUBA AND LOWER PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. MEANWHILE ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH MON AS THE RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE MONSOON TROUGH PERTURBATION SHIFTS TO THE W-NW ALONG 11N NEAR THE NICARAGUAN BORDER. BY MON NIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE BASIN AND WINDS DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT 2-4 FT SEAS BASIN-WIDE S OF 18N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LASTLY...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS NEAR 16.4N 58.4W AT 12/1730Z MOVING W AT 9 KT. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE AS GONZALO TRACKS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACHES PUERTO RICO BY LATE MON AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY TUE. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TODAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N76W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 26N68W. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121. SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM FAY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS NOW UP TO 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF AMZ115...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS NOW LIFTED N OF 31N AND IS MOVING VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ZONE AMZ115 THROUGH THE DAY AS FAY ACCELERATES WHILE MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. BY MON MORNING... THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND BECOME LOCATED SE OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE RIDGING CHANGING ORIENTATION AND SLICING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE INTO TUE MORNING. A NEW BURST OF SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH AMZ115 MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT NEAR 31N65W. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD GONZALO IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS NEAR 16.4N 58.4W AT 12/1730Z MOVING W AT 9 KT. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE AS GONZALO TRACKS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACHES PUERTO RICO BY LATE MON AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY TUE. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.