000 AGXX40 KNHC 120659 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 CORRECTED TYPO MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1017 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT LOCALLY MODERATE NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT S OF 22N E OF 94W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS GETS REINVIGORATED BY A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SE-S THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR THE ALABAMA/ FLORIDA BORDER TO LA PUNTA DE CABO ROJO MEXICO EARLY TUE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM NEAR CAPE CORAL FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...PUSHING JUST SE OF THE AREA WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ALL STILL SHOW 35 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ZONE GMZ023. THE SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 75 PERCENT NEAR 20N96W AT 18Z TUE WITH NEAR 30 PERCENT LINGERING THROUGH 12Z WED. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NW GULF WED THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN... EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED LOCALLY TO FRESH LEVELS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING RIDGE N OF CUBA AND LOWER PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. MEANWHILE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN HONDURAS IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE W-NW THROUGH MON AS THE RIDGING EXTENDS MORE TO THE SE TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND WHILE THE MONSOON TROUGH PERTURBATION SHIFTS TO THE W-NW NEAR THE NICARAGUAN COAST. BY MON NIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE BASIN AND WINDS DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT 2-4 FT SEAS BASIN-WIDE S OF 18N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 18N. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACCOMPANYING 1012 MB LOW PRES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 17N57.5W WHICH IS MOVING TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE FEATURES MOVE CLOSER. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW-N IN THE SW N ATLC. THE LOW DOES HAVE A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 06Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TODAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N76W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE HIGH TO OCALA FLORIDA. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF ZONE AMZ115. SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM FAY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS NOW UP TO 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF AMZ115...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS NOW LIFTED N OF 31N AND IS MOVING VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ZONE AMZ115 THROUGH THE DAY AS FAY ACCELERATES WHILE MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. BY MON MORNING... THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND BECOME LOCATED SE OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE RIDGING CHANGING ORIENTATION AND SLICING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE INTO TUE MORNING. A NEW BURST OF SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH AMZ115 MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT NEAR 31N65W. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD LOW PRES WHICH IS ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE UKMET HOWEVER IS QUITE AN OUTLIER TAKING THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE W WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE UKMET SOLUTION WILL BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE LOW DOES HAVE A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.