000 AGXX40 KNHC 111840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1019 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FT IN THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST GENERALLY N OF 24N W OF 95W. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGH IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH THE WIND FLOW COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO TUE...AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF WED. THE FRONT MAY THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OUT BEFORE PUSHING JUST SE OF THE AREA OR BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER WED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH RESPECT TO THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF. THE AREA REMAINS CONFINED S OF 21N AND W OF 95W WITH THE 0.25 DEG ECMWF SHOWING 35 KT WINDS IN GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. BOTH MODELS ALONG WITH THE UKMET ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE BASIN AND BECOMES WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES THE SE AND S-CENTRAL WATERS WED. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE WARNING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ZONE GMZ023...PER RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TREND OF THE SMALL AREA OF SHORT-DURATION GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITHIN THAT ZONE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN... EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT N OF 20N W OF 80W INCLUDING IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS INDUCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY STRONGER. ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN N OF CUBA WHILE BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUILDING SEAS TO 7 FT SUN MORNING WITH THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE BROAD LOW PRES SHIFTS TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 55W WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N55W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING PUERTO RICO LATE SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST TUE. CURRENTLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN GREATER ANTILLES...HOWEVER WITH IT LIKELY MOVING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS TUE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 36N70W SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 70W ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS BETWEEN 70W AND 77W AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 77W. RIDGING WILL PERSIST W OF 70W THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING WILL CHANGE ORIENTATION AND SHIFT TO THE E SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 70W DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION LATE TUE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WED NIGHT. E OF 70W...TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29N66W 990 MB IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF 60 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE BEFORE TURNING NE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF THE N AND NW QUADRANTS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS LARGELY LOCATED BETWEEN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BEGIN TO ABSORB THE CYCLONE BY MON. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS OF 12-16 FT. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE REGION ALONG 55W ACCOMPANIES A 1009 LOW PRES NEAR 16N55W. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW TO THE W-NW AROUND 15 KT WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING IT. DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN...HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS RECURVE THE LOW TO THE NE WED THROUGH FRI OF NEXT WEEK ONCE IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE SE U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.