000 AGXX40 KNHC 110715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1017 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS PARKED IN THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WSW NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGH IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH THE WIND FLOW COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR CAPE CORAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N94W WED MORNING. THE FRONT MAY THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OUT BEFORE PUSHING JUST SE OF THE AREA LATER WED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH RESPECT TO THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 25 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF AS COMPARED TO 40 KT 24 HOURS AGO. THE 0.25 DEG ECMWF DOES STILL SHOW 35 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. ALSO THE 00Z GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NOW DOWN TO 0 PERCENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ZONE GMZ023 FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE THE HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN... EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT N OF 19N W OF 77W INCLUDING IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. A BAND OF CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN N OF CUBA WHILE BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUILDING SEAS TO 7 FT SUN MORNING WITH THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE BROAD LOW PRES SHIFTS TO THE W. OTHERWISE...AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W/86W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING NEAR THE AXIS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH WEAK LOW PRES HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG IT NEAR 16N54W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT... APPROACHING PUERTO RICO LATE SUN NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC OR NE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH IT LIKELY MOVING MORE TO THE N ACROSS THE FAR SW N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 37N70W SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 70W ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS BETWEEN 70W AND 77W AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 77W. RIDGING WILL PERSIST W OF 70W THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS OTHER THAN DIMINISHING WINDS TO GENTLE. THE RIDGING WILL CHANGE ORIENTATION AND SHIFT TO THE E SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 70W DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION LATE TUE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WED MORNING. E OF 70W...SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 27N64.7W 1000 MB IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT. FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS MOVING RIGHT ALONG 65W BEFORE TURNING NE BY 24 HOURS. SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 300 NM ON THE NW SIDE OF FAY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS OF 13-16 FT...WHILE THE 06Z RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE SE ALONG 54W ACCOMPANIES A 1009 LOW PRES NEAR 16N54W. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING IT. DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN...HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS RECURVE THE LOW TO THE NE LATE NEXT WEEK ONCE IT APPROACHES THE SE BAHAMAS WITH A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE SE U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.