000 AGXX40 KNHC 101901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHEE BAY SW-W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY EXTEND FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE SW GULF TUE MORNING...AND THEN FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY TO 18N94W TUE EVENING. EARLIER GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT...ECMWF APPEARS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND BOTH HAVE WINDS UP TO 35 KT IN ZONE GMZ023/SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL GULF/GMZ017 HOWEVER...STILL RETAINS 30 KT WINDS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE WARNING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE SW GULF AND WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING AREA TO THE NORTH. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 11 FT IN THE SW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN... CURRENTLY ALONG 83W S OF 19N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE SUN...THEN WEAKENING AND BECOMING HARDER TO TRACK WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS E OF 76W...EXCEPT TO 15 KT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS W OF 76W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 81W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N80W. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT INTO MON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AND AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO THE N ACROSS THE MID- ATLC COAST ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INTO THE SW N ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TRADES TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4- 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A 1021 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S-SW. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 70W...3-5 FT BETWEEN 70W AND 77W AND 1-3 FT W OF 77W. RIDGING WILL PERSIST W OF 70W THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS OTHER THAN DIMINISHING WINDS. THE RIDING WILL CHANGE ORIENTATION AND SHIFT TO THE E SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 70W DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT. TO THE EAST OF 70W...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN NEAR 24N64W AT 1005 MB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TONIGHT AND SKIRT THE OFFSHORE ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121 ALONG 65W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 420 NM OF THE NE SEMICIRCLE. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 10/1000 UTC SHOWING SEAS UP TO 13 FT. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE REACHING ITS WESTERN EXTENT OF 65W AROUND SAT MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 12Z GFS WAS USED FOR THE LATEST GRIDDED PACKAGE. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SE OF THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ALL SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND TRACK EXIST. THIS FEATURE MAY IMPACT THE SE ZONES TUE INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.