000 AGXX40 KNHC 071749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST SCENARIO...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR FIRST TWO DAYS THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TWO DAYS THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FEATURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2 THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS E OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MIDWEEK ENABLING THE BROAD TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS DEVELOPING THREE SEPARATE LOWS BY SUN MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF IS MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH WITH A WEAK LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINING THE BROAD TROUGH WITH A WEAK LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.