000 AGXX40 KNHC 061751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE. AFTERWARDS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PERHAPS AS A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WILL DEPICT A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 28N68W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH PREVAILS E OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N WATERS THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.