000 AGXX40 KNHC 051748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE NW GULF WHERE IT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH DAY 4 THEN FAVOR THE ECMWF MODEL FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 4 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-6 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN START TO DIVERGE AFTERWARDS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS DIFFERENCE. THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ECMWF MODEL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS YEAR. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD STALLING NEAR 31N68W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATING SLOWLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.