000 AGXX40 KNHC 041705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS STILL EVIDENT FROM SW FL TO THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W...WITH N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW/SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF THE FRONT. THE E SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CREEP SE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WHILE THE W SEGMENT OF THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE W GULF COAST FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SE TX THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT N AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS THE FL STRAITS ON TUE. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM S-CENTRAL LA TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RE-ORIENT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF LATE SUN PUSHING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC 10-15 KT FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 10 KT/SEAS 1-3 FT ON TUE...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-6 FT AGAIN ON WED AND THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AT 20 KT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF 25 KT ENHANCED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS WITH MOSTLY 25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 69-82W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. MIXED N AND E SWELL WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT FROM MON THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO 27N70W ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS WITH A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED THIS MORNING NEAR 28N70W. THE LOW WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN. A BROAD PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO KICKING OFF CONVECTION FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FL. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR WATERS WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...THEN MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A SINGLE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N-CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON...AND LOSE IDENTITY ON TUE AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.