000 AGXX40 KNHC 031702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 102 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A SHARP SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT IS ANALYZED FROM THE NW FL PANHANDLE TO 24N96W ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LFT LA TO CRP TX WITH NLY 15-20 KT FLOW/SEAS 3-5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE POST- FRONTAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BY THEN THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH THE E SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CREEP SE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE W GULF COAST FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SE TX THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LA TO NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS SAT NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RE- ORIENT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF LATE SUN PUSHING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS INLAND. ANTICYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-4 FT ON MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-6 FT AGAIN ON WED EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AT 20 KT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AREA WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS WITH MOSTLY 25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 70-82W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. MIXED N AND E SWELL WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 26N65W TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY TO THE E OF 75W. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT...REACHING FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE NW COAST OF CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT... THEN MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A SINGLE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA LATE SUN NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THESE FRONTS WILL DRIFT W ON MON AND TUE AND LOSE IDENTITY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL ON WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.