000
AGXX40 KNHC 030602
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH GFS. MWW3 FOR
WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY ON FRI...AND REACH FROM W CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BY LATE FRI NIGHT...AND FROM THE NW
CUBA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO SW GULF LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E
OF THE GULF LATE SAT NIGHT. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE BRIEF
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT AND BECOMING ELY EARLY IN SUN...AND SLY LATER IN SUN
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE SLIDES EASTWARD. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE SAT...AND REMAINING AT RATHER LOW LEVELS
THROUGH TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE 12 UTC GFS.
MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 22N IS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED
TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK
S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
       
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE 12 UTC GFS.
USED MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 26N70W...THEN BECOMES A TROUGH
TO FAR NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND REACH FROM NEAR
31N56W TO 26N67W 27N74W EARLY FRI BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION ON SAT...REACH FROM
NEAR 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING AND WEAKEN FROM
31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NW
THROUGH TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.