000
AGXX40 KNHC 021859
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE 12 UTC GFS.
USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY ON
FRI...AND REACH FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BY LATE FRI
NIGHT...AND FROM THE NW CUBA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO SW GULF LATE
SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF LATE SAT NIGHT. NLY WINDS
OF 20 KT WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF ON SAT
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND BECOMING ELY EARLY IN SUN...AND
SLY LATER IN SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE SLIDES
EASTWARD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FT BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE SAT...AND REMAINING AT
RATHER LOW LEVELS THROUGH TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE 12 UTC GFS.
USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 22N IS DRIVING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS YEILDING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED
TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK
S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE
WITH WINDS HERE AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM.
USING THE GFS TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ALLOWED FOR WINDS OF 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT.

       
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE 12 UTC GFS.
USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO 27N72W...THEN BECOMES 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE FORECAST WATERS ON FRI. A NEW 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BY SAT NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIOANRY AND QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION SUN. NW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS ON SAT...AND QUICKLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE BASIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR RATHER GENTLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.