000 AGXX40 KNHC 020637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND THE GEFS DO NOT SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET ARE FASTER THAN THE NAVGEM AND 12Z ECMWF. THE FASTER 00Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE INVOF 22N IS DRIVING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS YEILDING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEEN IN THE 0202Z ASCAT-B PASS...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM. USING THE GFS TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ALLOWED FOR WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG 00Z GFS IS THE BEST INITIALIZED OF THE MODELS WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER NE WATERS. THE GFS HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM HERE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM IT NOW. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE FASTER GFS FORECAST IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CONDITIONS COMES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING CRITERIA N OF 30N W OF 78W. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A 25 KT WIND BARB IN THE AREA. BLENDING THE GFS WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YIELD WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING A STRONG BREEZE HERE AS A RESULT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.