000 AGXX40 KNHC 261729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. BUOY 42360 WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING 25 KT E-NE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS SINCE COME DOWN TO 15-20 KT. OTHER BUOYS AND PLATFORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER READINGS...NOW MAINLY 15 KT...AS THE FRONT IS LOOSING DEFINITION AND DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE REMNANTS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE N CENTRAL GULF SE OF LOUISIANA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...LIFTING TO THE NE WHILE CARRYING THE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE S THAN THESE NEWER RUNS. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS WITH THE FORECAST. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS. THE TAFB-NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE BASIN-WIDE TO 1-3 FT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH COMPROMISED BY A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. NEW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE N WATERS...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG WITH THE PRES GRADIENT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ONCE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS WITH THE FORECAST. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS. THE TAFB-NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR DAYS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE NW WATERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL UNDER A WEAK PRES PATTERN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 22N WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ZONES AMZ123-125 THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL SQUALL BRINING GUSTY WINDS. A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS AND COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THROUGH SUN. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER TUE...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY/SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.