000 AGXX40 KNHC 260730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N89W. BUOY 42360 SHOWED 25 KT E-NE WINDS AND 5 FT SEAS AT 06Z. OTHER ELEVATED SITES REPORTED WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE AREA AND THE 0230Z AND 0318Z SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SHIFTING W THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW WINDS THIS STRONG HERE...SO MADE EARLY ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WINDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT WILL LOOSE DEFINITION BY TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING. NEW LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG IT SUN NIGHT AND SEND THE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. THE 00Z GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THESE NEWER RUNS TO MOVE THE LOW EASTWARD. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS WITH THE FORECAST. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS. THE MWW3 AND NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH COMPROMISED BY A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. NEW ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH BUT WILL REMAIN OVER N WATERS...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG WITH THE PRES GRADIENT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN S CENTRAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...BUT THE PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO NEARLY 90 PERCENT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS HIGH PRES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE 00Z GFS WAITS UNTIL MON NIGHT TO STAMP OUT 25 KT WINDS HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN STALLED FROM NEAR 31N78W TO PORT ST LUCIE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT IS FORCED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SAT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN THE SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT WEAKENS...WITH THE GFS APPEARING AS GOOD AS ANY SOLUTION. LARGER DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY AS THE LOW EXPECTED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE ATLC OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF CARRIES A DEEPER LOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST N OF THE FORECAST AREA FASTER THAN THE GFS ON TUE WHILE THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z EC ENS MEAN ARE BOTH FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS. THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENS MEANS FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION. CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS AND THE MWW3/NWPS HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.