000 AGXX40 KNHC 251742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W TO WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N96W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF WITH ENHANCEMENT BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED INLAND NEAR AUSTIN TEXAS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT... LOCALLY TO FRESH IN THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 3-5 FT W OF 90W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE DEFINITION WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANTS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEW LOW PRES LIKELY FORMING ALONG IT IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS SUN MORNING. A VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN. LATEST IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BASIN WIDE...ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 81W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REACH PUERTO RICO FRI MORNING...HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING...AND EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA BY SUN MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. ONCE THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO BUILD N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WITH TRADES INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PESKY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE SE U.S. AND WATERS W OF 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO 23N79W. MAINLY MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT INTO A COASTAL TROUGH BY SUN MORNING. MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE NE PORTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE WATERS WITH ANOTHER FRONT OR TROUGH CLIPPING THE NE PORTION SUN THROUGH MON. AFTERWARDS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL FINALLY BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.