000 AGXX40 KNHC 170703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N85W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAINLY 5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT BASIN-WIDE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE PARENT COLD FRONT STILL TO THE N AND INLAND. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD SW FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. WHILE A LINE OF TSTMS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT NO OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 5-15 KT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 72W AND 80W COMBINED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO A PARENT CYCLONE NEAR 17N82W IS HELPING TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS BASIN- WIDE...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT...WHILE 5-15 KT AND 1-3 FT SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W/56W HAS AN ESTIMATED WESTWARD MOTION OF 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 18-24 HOURS...THEN THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36W/37W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN. AS FAR AS SEAS GO...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AT 4-7 FT SEAS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL THEREAFTER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS. HIGH PRES IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR 26N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W-SW NEAR BIMINI. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 70W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N67W EXTENDS A TROUGH S-SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS AND TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT E OF 77W WITH THE AID OF SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD...AND 1-3 FT W OF 77W...EXCEPT BUILDING SEAS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO 26N79W FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT... STALLING BACK ACROSS THE NW PORTION SUN. WEAK LOW PRES IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.