000 AGXX40 KNHC 141710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING...PASS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE SW GULF INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE UPPER SUPPORT THAT ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD...AND SHOULD REACH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX AND NE MEXICAN COAST ON MON NIGHT. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH TO LINGER OVER...AND OCCASIONALLY JUST OFFSHORE... THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 5-10 KT ALONG THE REMNANTS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO TO EXTREME SE TX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NW TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL SEGMENT W OF 90W WELL INLAND BY LATE TUE. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT TO THE E OF 90W WILL MEANDER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PLAINS TILL A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHES IT SE AGAIN ON WED...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT A LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 28N84W WED NIGHT AND MOVING E ACROSS CENTRAL FL THU EVENING DRAGGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E OF THE AREA. AS THE CENTRAL GULF TROUGH MOVES W ON MON AN ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS N FL WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 28N84W ON MON NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT W TO OVER THE N- CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NW OF THE AREA EARLY WED WITH THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTATING NW TO SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER SUPPORT THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCING TSTMS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR SW CUBA SEEMS TO BE DECREASING...BUT WILL CONTINUE DEPICTING ISOL TS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THIS EVENING...BUT DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 20-25 KT/SEAS TO 10 FT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST NOCTURNAL PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY 20 KT MAXIMUM TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN THE NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL RETURN ALONG THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST. FARTHER TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT DRIVE NE SWELL TO 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION OF AMZ027. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER AN SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BUT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING ATTM. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 24N67W AND ENHANCING ISOLATED WITHIN 180 NM OF 25N64W...WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING W. THIS UPPER LOW MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY MON. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SW OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR PORT CANAVERAL FL. AS TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD PASSES N TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N76W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W ALONG 28N BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E TO NEAR 27N70W TUE NIGHT EFFECTIVELY RE- ORIENTATING THE RIDGE BRIEFLY NW TO THE SE GA COAST. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT SE ON WED ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS EVENTUALLY STALLING ON WED NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH SOME SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW SE THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT. SET UP THE GRIDS FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE N WITH THE CENTER PASSING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-59W ON MON AND MON NIGHT. EXPECT ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA ELSEWHERE E OF 63W. AS FAR AS THE OFFSHORE ZONES...EXPECT SEAS OF 8-11 FT PRIMARILY IN EASTERLY SWELL TO SHIFT N ACROSS THE AREA N OF 22N E OF 72W FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.